By Janice Roberts
Latest cash withdrawal statistics revealed a predictable drop in the average ATM withdrawal values recorded across the country in January, Spark ATM Systems says.
The Spark Cash Index (SCI), which measures the average value of cash withdrawals across more than 1,500 Spark ATM's throughout the country, revealed an 8.81% drop in January 2012 to R417 per transaction, from a record withdrawal average of R458 in December 2011.
However, year-on-year withdrawal figures for January 2012 are up by 2.63%.
According to MD Marc Sternberg, the January drop in average cash withdrawal values is in keeping with consumer cash withdrawal patterns recorded over the past four years.
"Since 2008, our recorded January withdrawal averages following the December festive period have consistently revealed negative growth. January is also traditionally the month when consumers adopt a more conservative spending approach and cut back post the festive season excess."
He adds that additional factors such as salaries being drawn earlier in December also impact on lower ATM withdrawal figures in January.
Sternberg says that the drop in January ATM withdrawal values will be consistent with a decrease in Statistics SA's Retail Trade Sales (RTS) figures for the same period, as to date the SCI has been a leading indicator of these values.
"Although consumers will remain cautious, the current stable interest rate environment will foster consumer spending and local retailers should still enjoy a positive trading environment in 2012."
He points to the latest data released by the University of SA's Bureau of Market Research (BMR) forecasting that local retail sales will record a moderate annual growth of 4.5% in 2012 if retail inflation remains stable.
Economists at the Bureau for Economic Research agree that the BMR's forecast is achievable, but will depend on rand movement and European financial volatility.
"We expect average monthly cash withdrawal figures in 2012 to return to positive gains in April due to increased retail activity during the Easter holiday period," concludes Sternberg.
